NVIDIA's Inevitable Path to $10 Trillion (New 12-Mo. Price Target of $190)
- LaFoy O. Thomas III, Esq.
- Mar 15
- 4 min read
Thomas Third Capital
Investment Research Report: NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)
March 15, 2025
Investment Thesis: NVIDIA—The Future of AI and Computing
At Thomas Third Capital, we believe NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is one of the most important and innovative companies in the world. NVIDIA has established itself as the dominant force in AI hardware and software, supercomputing, and accelerated computing. With its leadership position in AI, data centers, gaming, and emerging industries such as sovereign AI and humanoid robots, we believe NVIDIA will be the first or second company, possibly behind only Tesla, to reach a market capitalization of $10 trillion, no later than calendar year 2028 (fiscal year 2029).
As of Friday, March 14, 2025, NVIDIA closed at $121.67 per share, translating to a market capitalization of $2.97 trillion. Given its projected revenue growth, robust profit margins, and an insatiable demand for AI infrastructure, we expect NVIDIA to maintain its leadership in the semiconductor space and drive significant shareholder value over the next several years.
Financial Performance & Projections
Fiscal Year 2025 Performance (Ended January 31, 2025):
Revenue: $130.5 billion (+114% YoY)
Earnings: $72.88 billion (+147% YoY), EPS: $2.94
Gross Margins: ~75%
Net Profit Margins: 55.8%
Data Center Revenue: +142% YoY
Stock Performance & Technical Analysis:
Current Price: $121.67
Recent Low: $104.77 (March 11, 2025)
21-Day Moving Average: $123.81
50-Day Moving Average: $129.30
200-Day Moving Average: $127.64
We believe NVDA will soon rise above its 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, signaling a strong technical recovery. While traditional IBD-style traders may wait for a breakout above the $143.54 double bottom buy point, we believe this is an unnecessary delay given NVIDIA’s exceptional long-term outlook.
Path to a $10 Trillion Market Cap
Revenue Growth Expectations:
We project that NVIDIA can sustain at least 35% annual revenue growth over the next four years, leading to total revenue exceeding $500 billion by fiscal year 2029. Wall Street estimates support a robust growth trajectory:
Fiscal 2026 Revenue (CY 2025): $204 billion (+57% YoY)
Fiscal 2027 Revenue (CY 2026): $252 billion (+23% YoY)
Fiscal 2029 Revenue (CY 2028, Our Estimate): $500+ billion
We believe NVIDIA can maintain a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of approximately 20 over this period, which supports a market capitalization exceeding $10 trillion by fiscal year 2029 (calendar year 2028).
Earnings and Valuation:
Our Fiscal 2026 EPS Estimate: >$5 per share
Our Fiscal 2027 EPS Estimate: >$7 per share
Our 12-Month Price Target: $190 (38x FY26 EPS)
Strategic Growth Drivers
1. AI & Data Centers: The Core of NVIDIA’s Growth
NVIDIA’s data center revenue surged 142% in FY25, reflecting insatiable demand for AI compute.
The GB200 Superchip, combining two Blackwell GPUs and one Grace CPU, is poised to dominate AI workloads.
AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and Oracle Cloud are deploying NVIDIA GB200 systems globally at scale.
AI training hardware cycles require frequent 1-3 year replacements, ensuring ongoing revenue streams.
2. Sovereign AI & Stargate
Nations worldwide are investing in Sovereign AI, ensuring long-term demand for NVIDIA’s hardware and software.
NVIDIA has secured a strategic role in the $500 billion Stargate Project, cementing its importance in global AI infrastructure.
3. Gaming & Metaverse Expansion
NVIDIA continues to dominate high-performance gaming GPUs and has a strong foothold in emerging virtual environments and metaverse computing.
4. Automotive & Robotics
NVIDIA’s Drive platform is a leading AI infrastructure for autonomous vehicles, positioning the company as a key enabler of self-driving technology for automakers outside of Tesla. However, and unfortunately, we at Thomas Third Capital believe that many automakers will go bankrupt within the next 3-7 years and we are not excited about NVIDIA’s DRIVE operating system for autonomous driving from a long-term demand standpoint. From a software perspective, we are only positive on Tesla’s Full-Self Driving technology.
We expect NVIDIA to eventually profit hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars annually from the growth of humanoid robots over the next 10-15 years.
5. Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet Strength
$43 billion in cash and short-term investments ensure financial flexibility.
Strong profitability allows aggressive R&D investment and share buybacks.
Industry & Competitive Positioning
Market Leadership: NVIDIA commands an unparalleled position in AI and accelerated computing.
Supercomputing Dominance: 75% of the world’s top 500 supercomputers run on NVIDIA hardware.
Competitive Moat: NVIDIA’s CUDA ecosystem and proprietary AI frameworks create high switching costs for competitors.
Potential Risks: Regulatory scrutiny, tariffs, supply chain dependencies, and competitive advancements in AI hardware (e.g., from AMD, Intel, or custom ASICs) could present challenges but are unlikely to derail NVIDIA’s trajectory.
Conclusion: NVIDIA’s Inevitable Path to $10 Trillion
We believe NVIDIA is one of the most important companies of our time and will likely be the first or second company to reach a $10 trillion market cap, competing only with Tesla for the top spot. Our conviction is based on:
Explosive AI-driven growth fueling 35%+ annual revenue expansion through FY2029.
Unmatched market leadership in data centers, AI, sovereign AI, and gaming.
Premium margins, pricing power, and a strong balance sheet enabling long-term sustainability.
A deep technological moat, making NVIDIA the backbone of the AI revolution.
With a 12-month price target of $190, representing significant upside from current levels, we at Thomas Third Capital believe NVIDIA remains an exceptional long-term investment opportunity. Investors waiting for technical breakouts risk missing one of the greatest wealth-creation opportunities in modern history.
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Disclaimer: I/We own shares of NVIDIA. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a financial professional before making investment decisions.
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